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Friday, November 27, 2009

What could have been?

Recruiting college sports is a funny thing. It's a quirky thing. It's a science, but possibly the most inexact one.

Coaches not only have to evaluate a player's physical tools or mental capacity, but also project their development, their potential upside, future value, and role within a college program.

Then they have to take all that, develop some sort of adequate cost-benefit rubric, and make decisions on what players to pursue, and how hard to pursue them. They do all of this, of course, with a rulebook thicker than a dictionary weighing them down and recruiting services offering fans an insider's glance into their work.

Mark Richt has long been a guy that's excelled in recruiting.

He goes toe-to-toe with every program in the nation, and has landed himself big-time names (Matthew Stafford, for example) and big-time classes (his overall hauls are rarely worse than top-15 material). Wisdom says—and wisdom is, to a certain extent anyway, right—that his team is stocked with talent.

But this Saturday in Atlanta, Richt could get a rudimentary yet insightful view of what might have been, just by looking across the sideline.

Demaryius Thomas. Morgan Burnett. Josh Nesbitt. Jonathan Dwyer.

All recruited by both Georgia and Georgia Tech, all wearing the white and gold when they run out of the tunnel on Saturday. Not by coincidence, the last three names on that short but talented list were all members of the 2007 class.

That 20-player haul, far and away Chan Gailey's finest whilst on the Flats, was good enough to rank 18th in the nation, according to Rivals.com. While nine spots lower than Georgia, the Yellow Jackets still celebrated the ranking, which was better than they were used to at the time.

Georgia's class that year ranked ninth, headlined by players like offensive lineman Justin Anderson, wide receiver Israel Troupe, quarterback Logan Gray, and running back Caleb King, considered by some the best overall prospect in the state of Georgia.

Compare those groups, three years later.

Gray, who was ranked just behind Nesbitt at quarterback nationally, has been unable to unseat starter Joe Cox this season, even when the latter has struggled.

Israel Troupe is listed as the Bulldogs' backup at one receiver position, with all-star starter A.J. Green out of the lineup.

Caleb King, once a Georgia high school darling (covered him for a time), has split carries with freshman Washaun Ealey, and has never locked down a starting place.

King might be the most relevant subject for our discussion. Now a redshirt sophomore, the Norcross, GA, native was one of the hottest commodities in Georgia high school football his senior season.

His blend of size, speed, and power, it was believed, would make him a great SEC back one day. For that, and as well, I'm sure, as several other reasons, Georgia went after King hard, and they got their man.

Three years later, King has 615 career rushing yards.

Dwyer went to Georgia Tech, and three years later, he's the top running back on most 2010 NFL Draft big boards.

The point is this: Talent is nothing if it's not developed properly, the same way you can't grow most plants in a lightless room, even if you water them every day.

Now, this one case study doesn't deny a body of work that suggests that Mark Richt certainly knows how to recruit. Just think of the number of players he's sent to the NFL. And his overall success at Georgia certainly suggests he knows what he's doing once he gets those guys, at least some of them.

But how often, in Richt's tenure at Georgia, has a player left without a ready-made replacement behind him? This isn't the first time the Bulldogs had to use tailback by committee, nor is it the first time the surprising lack of continuity at quarterback produced poorer-than-expected on-field results.

That also doesn't mean Richt would have automatically gotten those four guys had he not gotten other ones. In some cases—perhaps in all of them, I cannot say empirically, one way or the other—the player chose Georgia Tech over Georgia, as was the case with Thomas.

But even then, Thomas had already given a verbal pledge to Georgia Tech when Richt and Co. came in, essentially rendering Georgia's effort useless. And obviously, Georgia has A.J. Green, but right now he's injured, and might not play.

Whatever the reason, each of these players chose Georgia Tech over Georgia.

And on Saturday night, Mark Richt will look across the sideline and see a team that has a superstar running back, a top-flight wide receiver, a playmaker in its secondary, and a quarterback who is his team's unquestioned leader and obvious engine.

Richt would be hard-pressed to convince anyone that he wouldn't take any of that over his current options.

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